Has the economic depression already started?

11 julio, 2019

It is clear that the Third Economic Depression has started for a little more than a decade and, although the complicit silence of governments, media and universities tried to hide it from the people, it is becoming increasingly difficult to deceive a growing number of citizens who suffer this drama of the economic crisis that never goes back in the bosom of their own families. It is a broken world economy that tries to flee futilely, even if it means adulterating democracy, corrupting more politicians and impoverishing more families and citizens.

It is increasingly evident to us that the current model does not work and that the vast majority of the developed countries of the world are bankrupt due to their growing and exorbitant indebtedness. However, the global financial institutions try to cover with euphemisms the serious situation in which we find ourselves.

Every day that passes, it is easier for us to see that we are going worse. It is still doing more of the same without changing the fundamental thing that would be something consistent like putting in value the whole of the economy, eliminating bubbles, risky financial leverages and other speculative activities that have converted the financial markets into casinos for those who play sell games.

However, in the latest statements by the IMF, there is an increasingly distressing feeling with the prolonged crisis situation that we are suffering and from which we do not escape. The international financial institutions no longer have space or time to continue with the avoidance and dissimulation because they have already lied too much.

That’s right, instead of talking about how to puncture the current financial bubble that prevents the real economy from re-emerging, they prefer to talk about whether the inability of rich countries to solve their challenges is the one that threatens to cause a generalized recession and that the The impact of the crisis in the rich countries is infecting the emerging countries. This is not serious, nor is it true. They are half-truths that try to disguise what, in reality, is happening.

The unlimited power that banks have to generate money is irrationally increasing debt and feeding back inflations of assets that are growing to the point of placing the world economy within a financial bubble that is about to explode. To curb this giant bubble that has been created during these years, some experts believe that the attractiveness of speculation that keeps asset prices leveraged, such as real estate assets, should be reduced, but this does not stifle investment. I think it is a reasonable but optimistic opinion because, if we do not change the model and focus on sustainable development, we will be late for non-traumatic solutions.

It is hidden that we are immersed in the Third Economic Depression and that to achieve an exit from it, it is necessary to change the current neoliberal economic model for another of a sustainable nature. The sooner the transition to the new sustainable model begins, the less stressful, long and traumatic will be the period of time that will require all the adjustment to be carried out.

A process that will need to value the whole economy. for which we need to introduce innumerable innovations of all kinds, from social innovations – especially in relation to health, pensions, accommodation, education and employment – and technological, to financial, commercial, fiscal, energy and transport innovations that will require profound changes in coherence with the sustainable economy model-some call it “green economy” -which we need.

In the midst of the ceremony of confusion, as the world approaches ever closer to the global financial crack, recession looms, first in the EU, as is the case in Germany and, according to the markets, also in an economy such as the United States. that sailed last year at a rate of 3%. The highest since the economic depression erupted. But what fell when Wall Street announced repeated falls over the past few months.

Thus, in December 2018, there were losses that had not been known since 1931, during the Great Depression. The Dow Jones accumulated a monthly decrease of 8.7%. This was its worst monthly performance since February 2009. In addition, if we take into account the whole of the year, it fell by 5.6%. The year 2018 was the most bearish year since 2008. The S & P 500 was down 9.2% and the Nasdaq was down 9.5% on a monthly basis. For the full year, the S & P 500 made it 6.2% and the Nasdaq 3.9%.

The “Land of Promise and Wellbeing” that until 2008 was a reality for many countries will not return no matter how hard we try, until we change the economic model and introduce others of a sustainable nature. Meanwhile, debt levels will continue to rise, as will deficits.

The financial bubble will also do so until it punches and condemns us to an adjustment with traumatic consequences. All for continuing with an absurd and obsolete economic-financial model that seeks that the rich are getting richer and the poor, and not as poor as the middle classes, are getting poorer and, above all, condemned to unemployment, when not to precariousness and ever lower wages.

The most macabre thing is that there are right-wing parties that defend the tax cuts for the richest classes, when the misery spreads among the other social classes. The height of the greed of the richest classes and the height of human stupidity of the middle and lower classes are becoming the most prominent patrons of the world stage in which we live, where the minority ruling classes enjoy the favor and the vote of the majority middle and lower classes, thanks to the deception and the stupidity of the people caused, in large part, the lack of culture, the lack of critical capacity, the impunity to disseminate fake news, the control of the media audience and the manipulation of social networks.

A farce and a scam that will continue until the global financial crack explodes. Then, even the most stupid will be aware of the mockery they made to them and their ancestors, but it is something they will soon forget because they will never learn from their mistakes, since it is thus prescribed and well immersed in the human condition.


Why climate changing very quickly?

11 julio, 2019

Climate Change has not been growing as fast as we could think. We have been almost two centuries since the beginning of the First Industrial Revolution, attacking with our CO2 emissions the climatic balance of planet Earth.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, we began to suffer imbalances in the climate that broke with previous patterns and each year that passed became the warmest year, progressively increasing the levels of global warming, as well as the melting of glaciers and ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

This global warming has accelerated also affecting the oceans and we have entered a phase of increasing climatic instability that, as with the unstable balance of an spinning top, the dynamics initiated will bring the climate closer to another stable climate pattern characterized by a new glaciation as this has happened repeatedly over the course of the climatic evolution of our planet.

According to the website of the company Factor CO2: CO2 levels reached in March 2019 are the highest in 3 million years

The last time carbon dioxide levels were so high, Greenland was mostly green, sea levels were up to 20 meters higher and trees were growing in Antarctica, according to scientists who warned this week that there is more CO2 in our atmosphere today than in the last three million years.

Using a new computer simulation, researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that the last time the Earth’s atmosphere had a CO2 concentration as high as today was during the Pliocene, the geological period between 2.6 and 5.3 million years ago.

CO2 emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change.

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is “unnatural”, the lead author of the research, Matteo Willeit, told CNN.

Willeit said that according to the simulation, CO2 levels should not be higher than 280 parts per million (ppm) without human activity, but they are currently 410 ppm and are increasing.

Average global temperatures are rising much faster than at any time since the Pliocene, Willeit added.

At that time, they have never exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 2 degrees centigrade, but current models show that temperatures will rise by 4 degrees centigrade between 2000 and 2100 if measures are not taken to reduce emissions, he said.

We are entering unknown territory where increasing levels of CO2 are pushing the Earth beyond the climatic conditions experienced by humans.

If CO2 levels and temperatures continue to rise, “our planet will change” and sea levels will increase by one or two meters in the next 200 years, he added.

This research is not the first to suggest that current levels of CO2 are the highest since the Pliocene, but Potsdam researchers say that their work is the first to combine the ocean bottom sediment data with the analysis of volumes of ice past, and it is more sophisticated than other model studies.

At a meeting of the Royal Meteorological Society on the climate of the Pliocene in London, scientists discussed how sedimentary records and fossils of plants near Antarctica show that during the Pliocene era, summer temperatures in the Arctic were 14 degrees Celsius higher than the current ones.

Professor Martin Siegert of Imperial College, London, speaking at that day’s event, said the findings offered a glimpse into the future of the Earth, in the event that drastic measures were not taken to address global warming as effective. A very unlikely assumption if we consider how easy it is to manipulate people from the media and social networks in the service of the denials of climate change.

Especially if they hide answers like this to so many possible readers who, although they do not worry about building a better future for the world, nevertheless they have a vote and it is not fair that they vote on what they ignore, when in Quora they could know a truth that It concerns them so much.


Sin sustituir el actual modelo económico por otro modelo sostenible será imposible hacer frente al Cambio Climático

18 junio, 2019

Hace tres años, el Grupo de Trabajo III (Mitigación) del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) distribuyó un informe donde lo dejaban todo bien claro y se quedaban cortos con lo que exponían. Decían lo que desde este blog llevo década y media proclamando y, aunque tarde, pues se han perdido años valiosos de lucha eficaz contra el Cambio Climático, se agradece que haya los científicos me den la razón.

No obstante, también es cierto que lamento mucho la cobardía del Panel o comisión de expertos de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático en no haberlo denunciado mucho años antes como lo hicimos algunos prospectivistas que trabajamos en favor de un futuro sostenible, con todos los riesgos que ello representaba para nuestra actividad profesional.

Hoy en día, muchos strategic forecasters seguimos marginados por diferentes empresas y gobiernos europeos y americanos porque antepusimos nuestra honradez profesional y responsabilidad social al silencio cobarde de otros muchos, a la hora de denunciar tanto la gravedad como a los verdaderos causantes del Cambio Climático.

Deshielo polar

Con el actual sistema económico financiero el mundo camina hacia un desastre total irreversible y de proporciones tan colosales como es el Cambio Climático Abrupto. Es necesario decir adiós, cuanto antes, al actual modelo económico, basado en el lucro, la usura y la especulación, que no tiene en cuenta el bienestar social, la calidad de vida y el deterioro del clima del planeta y con ello, ni tan siquiera, la supervivencia futura de los seres humanos.

Este informe sobre el Cambio Climático denunciaba que los gobiernos no estuvieran haciendo lo suficiente para evitar profundos riesgos de catátrofes a ocurrir en las próximas décadas. Aunque no lo decían expresamente, tácitamente el futuro lo contemplaban de modo muy pesimista. Hoy en día, lo que abundan son promesas pero nada se mueve. Es cierto que hay intentos más o menos serios de impulsar el llamado capitalismo verde pero por ahora son intenciones como es el caso del despliegue masivo del coche eléctrico o de los edificios nZEB (Nearly Zero Energy Buildings).

Sin embargo, y quizá engañándose a sí mismos, los expertos encontraron un resquicio de esperanza porque todavía consideran que hay tiempo para evitar la peor y, en teoría es cierto, pero también lo era hace una década y, desde entonces, los niveles de emisiones de GEIS siguen aumentando y cada vez vamos a peor.

Los expertos plantean que, para frenar el Cambio Climático, todo depende de la voluntad política de hacer que ello sea posible pero se olvidan de la gran corrupción existente y que el sector financiero y las empresas energéticas oligopolistas no van a a dejar que el control de la economía lo recuperen los gobiernos.

Por lo menos, durante los próximos cinco años, dada la mediocre calidad de nuestros políticos actuales y los altos niveles de corrupción existente, considero que no se tomarán las medidas drásticas que el Panel de expertos sobre el clima de la Tierra solicita que se asuman con urgencia por parte de los gobiernos.

Inundación

Con el auge del neoliberalismo, la política hace tiempo que abandonó el control de la economía para dejarlo en manos de un codicioso y cortoplacista sector financiero empeñado en llegar a a ser los más ricos del cementerio, aún a costa de poner en grave peligro la supervivencia de la raza humana.

Pero los datos sobre el deshielo de los polos y el aumento anual de las catátrofes naturales debidas al Cambio Climático han obligado a que este informe sea mucho más claro y radical que los anteriorres informes. Se denuncia que no tenemos un plan B. Hay un solo plan A que no se está cumpliendo y necesitamos líderes que asuman un objetivo ambicioso de lucha contra el Cambio Climático este año.

Hasta el momento, y pasar de los reiterados avisos de los ciéntíficos del clima, en la primera década de este siglo, los niveles de dióxido de carbono atmosférico han ido creciendo casi dos veces más rápido que como lo hicieron en las últimas décadas del siglo XX. Para mayor vergüenza de nuestra falsas políticas contra el cambio climático, el año pasado, en 2018, se batió el record de emisiones GEI, causantes del calentamiento global.

Por consiguiente, si entonces decía que ya no había lugar para la esquiva y el disimulo, ahora podemos decir a nuestros politicos que dejen de mentirnos y de venderse a las empresas emisoras de GEI y a los politicos para eliminar el consumo de combustibles fósiles de nuestros territorios . Si seguimos utilizando la combustión de los combustibles fósiles para la generación de energía y para el transporte y los edificios, la catástrofe ecológica será un proceso irreversible de consecuencias muy graves e ilimitadas para el futuro de la raza humana. El surgimiento, cada vez más probable, de una nueva glaciación no es ninguna broma.

Debido a que se consideraba entonces que lo peor estaba por venir y a la extrema gravedad de lo que supondría el advenimiento de un Cambio Climático Abrupto, los expertos presionaron para lograr un ambicioso acuerdo climático global que se suponía que debería estar ultimado, a finales de 2015 y entraría en vigor en 2020. Para ello, consideraban que sería necesario superar las actuales divisiones entre los países ricos y los países más pobres que tanto habían influido en el fracaso de anteriores conferencias internacionales sobre el clima.

Como ya sabemos, la Cumbre de París sobre el Clima del aó 2015 fue un perfecto fracaso y ese año perdimos nuestra última oportunidad  para hacer frente al irremediable cambio climático que se nos avecina. En el año 2019, batiremos el record histórico de emisiones GEI y mataremos la esperanza de las próximas generaciones de seres humanos. Un sistema económico financiero cuyo motor utiliza el combustible de la avaricia no puede sino conducirnos a la destrucción total.

Sequía

Finalmente, señalaré que aunque todos los escenarios no eviten un sufrimiento injusto y cruel a las generaciones que vienen, considero que podemos conseguir que el sufrimiento no suponga también la eliminación total de la especie humana. Las tecnologías limpias para generar energía eléctrica están avanzando mucho. Hoy en día, las energías renovables y la eliminación radical del consumo de combustibles fósiles pueden ser la única solución que tenemos para lograr que el progresivo deterioro del clima, aunque traumático, no sea tan catastrófico como para que la especie humana, como ocurriera con los dinosaurios y está ocurriendo ahora con otras especies, desaparezca sobre la faz de la Tierra.

Dede hace casi una década, está super demostrado que determinadas fuentes renovables, como la energía solar o la energía eólica, son, con diferencia, las más rentables. Sin embargo, debido a la inmensa corrupción política y a los consiguientes sobornos empresariales, la batalla contra las energías fósiles no está siendo nada fácil y va a ser muy larga.

En efecto, y esa es nuestra triste desgracia, todavía repetiré que en casi todos los países desarrollados, existen muchos frenos al impulso de las energías renovables debido a los intereses contrarios del sector oligopolista de la energía que sigue apoyando un modelo energético insostenible basado fundamentalmente en el consumo de los combustibles fósiles. Este modelo energético obsoleto, causante del calentamiento global, de manera bochornosa, cuenta con el amparo de la corrupción política y la complicidad de una gran porcentaje de hipócritas consumidores que declaran amar mucho a sus hijos y nietos, cuando con sus actuaciones y omisiones están propiciando un destino catastrófico para ellos.


Why is it not said that Christopher Columbus sailed with many Basques who knew the existence of America by reference to other Basque sailors who fished whales off the coasts of Canada?

24 mayo, 2019

Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and the mouth of the St. Lawrence River

Many legends and myths have become a reality contrasted after passing centuries. My theory is that when coincidences have a very low probability of occurrence, we must think that there is some truth, if it is not everything.

There are a few legends that surround the figure of the Basque whalers who were the best whale hunters from the 8th century until almost the 19th century. Following the track of the whales, they left the waters of the Bay of Biscay to the Faroe Islands and Iceland, to sail towards the mouth of the Saint Lawrence River.

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A legend locates the Basque whalers in the American continent, in the year 1375. Exactly, on the island of Newfoundland, more than 100 years before the arrival in the New World of the Genoese admiral. But they were not conquerors, but fishermen with a reputation as corsairs or pirates. They did not kill Indians but whales for their sustenance and in their factories the whale oil used in the lighting of European houses and cities was produced.

Other historical sources indicate that a score of men departed from the Bay of Biscay and Bayonne in the year 1412 where they later arrived in the territory of Newfoundland. And it is that there are data that corroborate the existence of Basque whalers already in the year 760 of our era. Others are related to the Vikings, especially by their matching naval constructions. Unfortunately, there is no archaeological evidence of all this.

Perhaps the most outstanding piece of the site of Red Bay, Canada. It is the Basque whaling ship that has become one of the greatest jewels of underwater archeology. It is the San Juan galleon, a whaleboat built in Pasajes that sank in Red Bay in the summer of 1565 when, loaded with whale oil, it was preparing to return to the Basque coast.

According to the version of a legend or a myth that circulated among the Basque sailors, they arrived in Newfoundland around 1375 and decided to keep the secret to avoid sharing with other fishing fleets the prodigious fishing grounds of the area. Between the myth and the reality, it is related that when the French explorers came into contact with the natives of the Island of Newfoundland, they greeted them with the formula “Apezak hobeto!”(“The priests are better!”, In Basque), that the Basque sailors used as a response if someone asked them about their health.

At the same time, there is an undeniable huge trace that the Basque language caused in the languages of the inhabitants of the Island of Newfoundland since the 16th century. During the two centuries of splendor of the Spanish Empire, a pidgin was spoken in Newfoundland, that is, a rudimentary language that mixed Basque and the local languages of the natives. The same thing happened in Iceland where a Basque-Icelandic Pidgin language was spoken in order to understand each other and where they presumably had to talk about the land that the Vikings discovered in the western seas.

Also, many of the current names of cities and other places in Newfoundland are of Basque origin. As an example, the city Port-aux-Basques is present in maps of 1612; Port-au-Choix is a disfigurement of Portutxoa,“small port”; and Ingonachoix which translates as“bad anchoring.”

On the other hand, Marq de Villiers and Sheila Hirtle are the authors of ‘Sable Island‘, a book that collects the history of this sandy island located 150 km southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. At present only two people and a hundred wild horses inhabit this unstable strip of 50 km long and one kilometer wide, which for more than 400 years was known as the ‘Atlantic Cemetery’, causing more than 500 sinkings of ships when the ships ran aground against the changing sand dunes.

Although the official discovery of the island was carried out by Portuguese sailors at the beginning of the 16th century, the book echoes the possibility that in fact the first ones to arrive at Sable Island were Basque fishermen, in their whaling expeditions and in their constant search for new cod fishing grounds. Some researchers support the theory that the Basques came to North America, specifically to Newfoundland and the coast of the Labrador peninsula in the fourteenth or fifteenth century. These theories abound in the possibility that the Basque fishermen came to the area regularly, and perhaps even had small colonies of sailors working there, before Christopher Columbus discovered America in 1492 or that John Cabot arrived in Newfoundland in 1497.

According to the authors of ‘Sable Island’,long before these ‘discoveries’ the rumor was already running around Europe that Basque sailors had found land on the other side of the Atlantic, maybe an island, maybe something else. Some Breton sailors apparently tried to follow the Basque sailors, without success.

At the beginning of the XV century —the book continues saying— a history was known among the European sailors according to which two ships of the Western Baskonia, one commanded by Juan de Echaide and the other by Matías de Echeveste, would have reached earth beyond the Atlantic, at the end of the 14th century, although there is no documented proof of this. Recently, remains of important Basque whaling centers have been found on the coast of Labrador and in Newfoundland, but they date back to 1530. Only three decades later, the Basque population at the mouth of the San Lorenzo River would have reached 2,000 people.

The Basques in the discovery of America

It is no coincidence that the work done by the famous Basque cartographer Juan de Lacoza, and by the Basques in general, in the discovery of America was more effective than striking, more useful than agitated and more silent and modest than lucrative. I do not think it’s any coincidence, the enormous participation of the Basques in the discovery of America. Is it that Juan de Lacoza knew something about the Basque whalers who had come to lands located west of Iceland? Why did he abandon his own business by accompanying Christopher Columbus from his first trip and then in the second, as a pilot of the Santa Maria caravel, of which he was the owner?

Other Basques, also traveled in the expedition and, therefore participated in the Discovery of America, as assistants of Lacoza, the Basque sailors Juan Ustobia, Pedro Bilbao, Juan Lequeitio and his brother Txomin.

For his third trip, Christopher Columbus, who was no longer with Lacoza, had four Biscayan captains of the six who were in total, and other Basques such as Lope de Olano, who had already gone on the second trip; Pedro de Arana, brother-in-law of Christopher Columbus and brother of Diego Arana, Pedro Ledesma as senior pilot; Martín de Arriaran and Fernando Ibarra, secretary of Christopher Columbus, who distinguished himself by his culture and was a personality in the letters, in addition to the sailors Diego de Portugalete, Martin Arrieta, Domingo Vizcaino, Gonzalo Salazar, Diego de Mendoza, Pablo Ledesma, Gregorio Zaldua, Pascual Luzuriaga, Machin Vizcaino, Martín Fuenterrabía and those of the second trip Domingo de Arana, Miguel Larriaga and Juan de Quijo.

Seven trips in total made Lacoza to the newly discovered lands, in all of which he made many explorations and investigations as well as important discoveries. In the last of these trips the intrepid Basque sailor died on February 28, 1503 in Cartagena de Indias crossed by more than 20 poisoned arrows fired by the aborigines of that place after he came to support Alonso de Ojeda, provocateur of the fight with the Indians and who as soon as possible could flee the place leaving only Lacoza.

The result of the voyages of this exceptional sailor was his famous map of the world, which he elaborated after his third voyage in the company of Alonso de Ojeda, in Santa María, in October of the year 1500 and which is the first cartographic document on America and the most important of the time. A fact that nobody has ever heard but that, nevertheless, is a fact that is well demonstrated. If this information is hidden in history, will not other more important data have been hidden about the reason for the great participation of the Basques, and, especially, that of the cartographer Juan de Lacoza, in the discovery of Amárica?

Among the great lies of History, we find the fact that it was the Portuguese Ferdinand Magellan or the English corsair Francis Drake, the man who gave the world for the first time sailing, when it is fully proven that he was the Basque sailor Juan Sebastián Elcano. But we already know, “a lie, a thousand times repeated, becomes a truth” and in history there are many lies. Magellan died in the Philippine Islands, halfway, and the one that he gave for the first time round the world was the Basque Juan Sebastian Elcano on September 6, 1521 and the English Francis Drake made them in December of 1577, some fifty and six years later.


¿Por qué muchos denigran a Greta Thunberg, la chica famosa por combatir el calentamiento global?

5 abril, 2019

Porque los que la denigran son malas personas. Son gente interesada, que no tiene principios, ni valores y que actúan saboteando todo lo que puedan para impedir que las ideas de Greta Thunberg se propaguen entre los jóvenes de todo el mundo.

Estas malas personas son iguales en todas partes. Utilizan los insultos personales para degradar a una buena y admirable persona como Greta Thunberg, llegando a realizar amenazas para intimidarla. Con frecuencia, recurren también a chistes y bromas sarcásticas o a ataques fulminantes por medio de las redes sociales con la intención de humillar a sus víctimas.

 

No dudan en calumniar y decir mentiras y medias verdades para denostar a una persona en público y así anular la fuerza de la razón de su mensaje.

Esto es lo que están haciendo con Greta Thunberg, una joven que destaca por ser un ejemplo a emular en defensa de la lucha contra el cambio climático.

Greta Thunberg es la adolescente sueca que moviliza a los jóvenes por el clima. Ella representa el nuevo símbolo de una generación abocada a crear conciencia dentro de la sociedad y de las organizaciones internacionales sobre el cambio climático.

Greta Thunberg, quien fuera diagnosticada de Asperger a los 11 años de edad, está catalogada como una de las jóvenes más influyentes del planeta por la revista “Time”. Greta Thunberg es la adolescente de 16 años que, desde el pasado mes de septiembre, se ocupa en lo que ella misma ha catalogado como “los viernes por el futuro”

Así, todos los viernes exhorta a los jóvenes estudiantes suecos a cambiar, un día a la semana, las aulas de las clases por el pavimento situado frente al Parlamento en Estocolmo. Greta Thunberg lo hace para exigir a las autoridades suecas que lleven a cabo acciones más concretas, a la hora de hacer frente al cambio climático.

En bastantes países ya se ha propagado esta iniciativa. Una actuación que es del todo justificable, porque los adultos estamos portándonos muy mal con estos jóvenes, pues, siendo sinceros, estamos haciendo bien poco por las generaciones futuras y esa es también una actuación desleal y vergonzosa para con nuestros propios hijos y nietos.


Bernie Sanders said “To stop climate change, the U.S. must lead the world in transforming our energy system away from fossil fuels to sustainable energy. ” Do you agree with him or not that the US must lead the world?

28 marzo, 2019

I am agree with Bernie Sanders. He shows to have a lot of intelligence and not to be tied to material goods. This implies being a reliable leader who is committed to building a better place for everyone. Also, it is the only way for capitalism to restore dignity to human beings, balance between nature and the environment with human activities and scientific progress. Something that was always with evident Keynesianism, is still denied by a financial capitalism whose engine of development is greed, thus confusing the maximization of the benefit with the wealth and welfare both individual and social.

Why will human beings be so ineffective in fighting the great threat posed by climate change? Will it have to do with the fact that capitalism and sustainability are totally antagonistic and incompatible concepts as argued by various modern thinkers of that social left that contributed so much to erecting the welfare state?

For Joel Kovel, author of the famous and controversial book “The Enemy of Nature”, the main debate focuses on getting to opt for one of these objectives. Either we bet on the end of capitalism or, on the contrary, on the end of the world.

For Kovel, sometimes a bit simplistic and radical in his perceptions, there are no average terms. For him, capitalism is expansionist and eco-destructive, period. It is a criticism that is too pointed because there is no more to see what communism has done and continues to do. Indeed, as we see now in China and we saw in the former USSR, to realize that the economy and its corresponding political regime, whatever the color, has been recursivo or resource-consuming and has always placed the environment in a second or third place.

Capitalism is a natural, ruthless and insatiable devourer of natural resources that leaves no time for their renewal and causes them to be progressively depleted. In this way and without mercy for anybody, a global rupture of the ecosystems is taking place that directly affects every creature of this planet, including ourselves. To this massive transformation of ecosystems he calls it an ecological crisis. For now we know with certainty what happens to us but we are unable to predict the consequences rigorously.

The inherent complexity of these systems, where the indeterminacy of their multiple and sometimes unknown interactions does not allow us to have ready predictions about the end of the ecological crisis. For Kovel only a fool would think to predict the final outcome of the ecological crisis. However, it would be necessary to be a bigger fool if he refused to understand the ecological crisis in which we are immersed is the biggest challenge we have to face in our time.

On the other hand, what Kovel thinks is far removed from what the vast majority of mortals may think, including those who live in countries where leftist parties rule. For the vast majority of human beings living in rich countries, the ecological crisis seems imperceptible. They think that it is a mere exaggeration.

They accept that although it is true that climate change is being talked about more and more, nothing has changed. They consider that it is still cold in winter and hot in summer, that there are still days when it is sunny and others where it rains, that food continues to abound on our tables and that children who are born are getting healthier and better cared for and fed. In general, men and women have a bad idea of ​​how time goes by. We think that what lasts or we know for ten years is something of a lifetime.

It is not difficult to internalize that many of the substances that are immersed in nature did not even exist a little over sixty years ago. These are products and substances that have been artificially produced and that some, like plastics, tires, radioactive substances, etc., cause problems to store their waste.

Joel Kovel argues that any coherent explanation about the causes that have caused the ecological crisis must include the production of goods and the role that United States play in regulation. From my point of view, I consider that on these subjects he was somewhat obsessed and in this something was already derailed as it also happened when he criticized Zionism unjustly and fallaciously. Therefore, their provocative statements should be taken with relative calm and distance but it would be good if they were heard and valued in order to establish, with greater ease and rigor, the correct theses.

In this sense, according to the opinion of Joel Kovel, the current ecological crisis is due to the fact that the capitalist system, being uncontrollable in its production, damages ecosystems and prevents governments from regulating production, and even makes them incapable of protecting the ecosystems against the deterioration they suffer. His criticism, although Kovel is right in many things, is too ideological and dogmatic because it denies to capitalism the possibility of being a sustainable issue that I deeply disagree with.

Green capitalism is a good option. It is a type of capital increasingly accepted and Kolvel knows it, but he prefers to bend to its dogma. Being rigorous, we can not deny that the existence of a sustainable capitalism or green capitalism falls within the field of possible, just as there is a social capitalism, as happens in countries like Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Israel, etc., and in many other countries of the EU such as Spain, France, etc.


Para el año 2050, debido a un amplio despliegue de las tecnologías 4.0 en los países desarrollados, la jornada de trabajo se reducirá a cuatro días laborables a la semana

26 febrero, 2019

Es bien conocido que el trabajo desarrollado por los seres humanos ha ido disminuyendo progresivamente a lo largo de la historia en la medida que se ha sustituido el trabajo humano por máquinas en los diferentes sectores económicos. Este proceso ha permitido desarrollar el mundo y hacer que el trabajo fuera más liviano y permitir incluso la generalización del trabajo femenino y la finalización del trabajo de niños y adolescentes.

Naturalmente se crearon muchos desajustes sociales, sobre todo tras la automatización del trabajo en el campo que impulsó la gran emigración a las ciudades. Después, principalmente, tras se la 2ª Revolución Industrial, le tocaría el turno de automatización de procesos en el sector industrial con el desarrollo de las máquinas herramientas, y ello ocasionó otros desajustes entre la producción y el empleo.

Entre los ajustes introducidos, destacaré que ha sido muy importante la reducción progresiva de la jornada laboral. Así, la introducción y generalización del sábado inglés, que consideraba fiesta el sábado por la tarde, se amplió al sábado por la mañana. Hoy en día, muchas empresas ya no trabajan el viernes por la tarde.

Las anteriores revoluciones industriales es cierto que destruyeron puestos puestos de trabajo pero también lo es que se crearon otros puesto de trabajo en el sector terciario o de los servicios. Se trataba de una destrucción creativa de puestos de trabajo como lo popularizó el economista austríaco Joseph Shumpeter. Desaparecían los obreros con palas cavando en las obras públicas y entraban la excavadoras que eran capaces de hacer el trabajo de treinta hombres. Pero también sus empresas fabricantes y sus servicios anexos de venta, mantenimiento, transporte financieros, tecnologías, etc., son empresas que crearon innumerables puesto de trabajo.

Pero ya ha comenzado a llegar el Tsunami tecnológico que representa la 4ª Revolución Industrial y que nos llega como resultado de la convergencia de las tecnologías: robótica, nanotecnología, biotecnología, tecnologías de información y comunicación, inteligencia artificial, internet de los objetos, aprendizaje automático de las máquinas, realidad aumentada y otras. Los estudios serios desarrollados en base a la prospectiva tecnológica no mienten, a pesar de los malos resultados obtenidos.

En menos de diez o quince años, según los ritmos de ajuste de cada país, se perderán el 25% de los puestos de trabajo. Esta revolución, que se asienta sobre la 3ª Revolución Industrial relacionada con las tecnologías TIC, crea muy pocos puestos de trabajo y destruye muchos. Los políticos que dicen que no hay que preocuparse porque se crearán otros puestos de trabajo y que éstos compensarán los que se destruirán debido a las nuevas tecnologías, están mintiendo desvergonzadamente.

La solución se conoce y requiere una reinvención de la sociedad. Se sabe qué hay que hacer. Muchos prospectivistas trabajamos en ello. Os confesaré que hasta el momento no nos hacen apenas caso, en la medida que, salvo excepciones, ya no hay políticos estadistas que preparen a sus países para hacer frente con éxito a los retos de futuro. Viven sólo en el corto plazo y los cambios les producen pánico.

La reducción de los días de trabajo es un ajuste necesario porque necesitamos repartir el trabajo pero no quieren hablar sobre ello y muchos menos, hablar sobre la necesaria renta universal pues habrá muchos desempleados tecnológicos estructurales. A pesar de la gravedad que ello representa, por ahora nadie agarra el guante.

Pero somos incombustibles. Así, “de derrota en derrota hasta la victoria final”, y a la espera de que haya politicos más responsables seguiremos predicando en el desierto, como lo hacemos cuando hablamos desde hace casi treinta años sobre el calentamiento global y el desarrollo sostenible. Como podréis comprobar existen muchos otros cambios que introducir para construir un futuro que merezca la pena y que ya iré tocando, en la medida que vaya habiendo preguntas en ese sentido.